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By Mike Dolan

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) – Like mirages on the horizon, recession forecasts seem to be appearing and disappearing with great regularity – questioning any investment conviction, the reliability of pandemic-distorted data and still-low volatility gauges in financial markets.

In just six weeks of 2023, economic forecasters have hurriedly revised away this year’s long-assumed recessions in euro zone and the United States – confounded as they were by a mix of warm weather in Europe and some wild U.S.jobs market revisions and statistical quirks that have dramatically reshaped the interest rate outlook stateside.

Throw in China’s unexpectedly swift removal of “zero COVID” restrictions and already 2023’s global picture looks radically different than it did only in December – never mind the previous January before the Ukraine invasion redrew inflation, interest rate and investment maps for everyone last year.

Bearing in mind the United States, China and euro zone together account for well over half the annual $101 trillion of global output, that’s some collective moving target.

Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs – often a market mover with its big macro calls – is a good example.Last month it revised away forecasts for eVDEN EVe nAKLiYAT a euro zone contraction this year and this week cut its chances of a U.S. recession in 2023 to just one-in-four from one-in-three previously.

Yet as recently as mid-December, forecasts from Bank of America, Barclays and BNP Paribas were also plumping for a full-year contraction of U.S.gross domestic product this year.

Last month’s Bank of America survey of fund managers around the world still had net 68% expecting recession this year.

But no one’s quite sure all of a sudden – and so much for so-called ‘leading indicators’ like the historically inverted U. If you’re ready to check out more in regards to eVDeN eve NaKLiyAt check out the internet site. S.Treasury yield curve – traditionally a sure fire predictor of downturns ahead.

Last Friday’s red hot January employment report is forcing hurried rethinks everywhere. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated baldly that the lowest jobless rate since 1969 is simply inconsistent with recession this year and Federal Reserve policymakers are already turning even more hawkish on the rate outlook.

Rates markets reared up to price Fed rates back above 5% and now expect them higher at yearend than they are today.Stocks swooned again and currency strategists, EVDeN eVE nAkLiYat such as the team at Morgan Stanley, switched negative views on the U.S. dollar worldwide to neutral all of a sudden.

If that wasn’t enough whiplash, Fed Chair Jerome Powell chimed with his colleagues on more that needs to be done to tackle inflation – but also laced his comments with expectations of a cooling jobs market and opined on the difficulties predicting this cycle.

In other words, if your outlook hinges on getting a recession call right or nailing the timing of peak interest rates, be prepared to shift it now from week to week.

HOARDING AND EVdeN eVe nAkLiyAT FOMO

What’s the big deal?As famed British economist John Maynard Keynes is often quoted as saying: “When my information changes, I alter my conclusions.”

But the problem may indeed be the “information.”

To be sure, the dance around the “R word” is a little artificial.Rigid technical definitions involving consecutive quarters of contraction may mean changes are only the difference of a couple of tenths of GDP either way, the sort of margin easily revised away down the pike anyway.

A bigger issue is whether monthly data can be trusted for steer on the business cycle you’re trying to second guess.

High-frequency economic numbers were bamboozled by the pandemic’s economic shutdowns and reboot worldwide – with distortions still lingering on everything from supply chains to labour force participation, savings, consumption and policy rescues.

The energy shock around Ukraine merely compounded that by amplifying an outsize inflationary twist and household squeeze while jamming some supply chains even more.

Monthly economic updates now require significant health warnings and assumptions of “normalisation” may have been premature.

Although not inconsistent with other tight labour market soundings, the U.S.January jobs report was riddled with revisions, remodelling and seasonal adjustments.

While that may not change your view of employment today, reasonable concern about labour hoarding and lags between announcements of company layoffs and data surveys mean it’s hard to rely on it solely for a change of course the way many in markets seem to have done since Friday.

But even doubts about the data can be read both ways.Barclays’ economists stressed there was evidence of job hoarding in the fact that a huge downturn in the U.S. housing market last year clearly hasn’t shown up in construction layoffs. And if the Fed had assumed those job cuts would come and the sector is already bottoming, there may be more aggressive policy ahead.

But the numbers are so unclear, we’re still in a guessing game.

“It would be helpful to hear an assessment of what the Fed actually thinks is happening given structural economic changes, cyclical impulses and poorer quality data,” lamented UBS economist Paul Donovan ahead of Powell’s speech on Tuesday.

Investors trying to bet on where all this pans out can’t be filled with confidence.

And yet market volatility gauges have stayed peculiarly serene.

At just under 20, Wall Street’s VIX is pretty much at its average for the 33 years of existence.Bond market volatility remains well above its 20-year mean – but it has retreated sharply to two-thirds of last year’s peaks. Even currency volality is only marginally above average.

Are people just peering through the noisy macro and fearful of missing out on the return to beaten down assets?

BNP Paribas Chief Economist William De Vijlder talks of the risks of being “three times wrongfooted”.

“One would expect that bond and equity markets would rally when central banks signal that the tightening cycle is (almost) over,” he said.”But such positioning comes with the risk of being wrongfooted by the data. What follows is huge volatility.”

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

(by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Josie Kao)

Buyers are rushing to resale websites to snatch up ‘s coveted Yeezy sneakers, hours after Adidas announced they would be dropping the rapper’s clothing line.

According to WANTD, an aggregator of data from secondary market sites, nine out of the top 25 best-selling sneakers on resale sites were Yeezys as of Tuesday morning, a spike from the previous six weeks.

Sneakerheads are scooping up the shoes following the news that their production will halt following  over controversy surrounding the 45-year-old rapper’s recent anti-sematic remarks.

Hours after the announcement, the Yeezy Boost 700 model sneaker held the number two spot on eBay’s current list of best-selling sneakers.

Jon Schaefer, a reseller who uses eBay to flip shoes told he predicted the price of Yeezys could jump nearly 50 percent.

By Schaefer’s prediction, the brand could soon cost an average of about $400 per pair. 

Though the value of Yeezys has dropped in recent years after Adidas ramped up production,

‘The novelty of owning a pair of Yeezys has worn off, thus lowering the resale v

An interpreter tried to persuade doctors at a hospital to approve an illegal kidney transplant for the daughter of a wealthy Nigerian politician, who it is claimed plotted to transport a street trader to the UK to harvest the organ, a court has heard. 

Evelyn ‘Ebere’ Agbasonu allegedly asked for EvDeN EVe NaKLiYat payment of £1,500 to help secure the £80,000 private kidney transplant for the alleged recipient Sonia Ekweremadu, 25, at the Royal Free Hospital in north London in February 2022. 

Jurors at the Old Bailey heard of Ms Agbasonu’s role during the trial of Ike Ekweremadu, 60, who is alleged to have conspired with family members and others to exploit the 21-year-old street trader from Lagos in harvesting his kidney. 

The then-deputy president of the Nigerian is on trial alongside his wife Beatrice Ekweremadu, 56, their daughter Sonia and medical ‘middleman’ Dr Obinna Obeta.They all deny conspiracy to arrange the travel of another person with a view to exploitation. 

Sonia had a ‘significant and deteriorating’ kidney condition which could be managed through dialysis but cured with a transplant. 

The prosecution claims the procedure was not legal as the potential organ donor was a street trader from Lagos who had no altruistic motive or family connection with the recipient.

The Old Bailey has been told it was a ‘transactional’ deal, eVdEN EvE NaKLiyaT with the man to be paid up to 3.5m Naira, the equivalent of £7,000,for the harvesting of his body part and the promise of opportunities in the UK. 

He was tested in Nigeria and found to be a match for Sonia before being brought to the UK. 

The jury heard that Ms Agbasonu, who worked as a medical secretary at the clinic and spoke Igbo, stepped in to interpret during an initial meeting on February 24 between Dr Peter Dupont and the donor from Nigeria. 

The consultant had concluded the man, who cannot be named for legal reasons, EVdeN eVe nakLiYAt was not an appropriate candidate and appeared relived that the transplant would not take place. 

However, according to messages from others, Ms Agbasonu appeared to agree to manipulate a second meeting to the advantage of the Ekweremadu family.

Mr Ekweremadu’s brother Diwe, who had medical training, allegedly sent Sonia Ekweremadu advice from the interpreter to show a clear family connection with the donor. If you beloved this post and you would like to receive additional facts with regards to evdeN EvE nAKLiYAT kindly go to our own site.  

He allegedly said: ‘Ebere said it would be easier to establish that his mum and your mum are sisters.If we stretch it to the grandmum and grandmum the relationship will be too distant.’

Ms Ekweremadu allegedly replied with: eVDen Eve NAKLiyAt ‘Ok, that’s fine.’ 

Diwe then allegedly laid out a financial agreement with her father, saying: ‘I’ve met the Igbo interpreter.She agreed to work with us. She will be involved in coaching the boy, and during his consultation and interviews she will be providing the relevant interpretation.

‘She insisted that I give her £1,500. I think the just position themselves to exploit people.’ 

It is claimed the potential donor was told to pretend to be Sonia’s cousin. 

Diwe is also alleged to have said: ‘We had a meeting today with her so I’ve introduced her to Chinoso (Sonia) and (the donor).She advised that (the donor) comes to the hospital on Tuesday and Thursday while Chinoso (Sonia) is having her dialysis.

‘Psychologically everyone in the team will have to accept that he’s really committed to his cousin’s health and it usually makes it easier to accept the person for the procedure.’

Prosecutor Hugh Davies KC suggested to the court the messages demonstrated the opposite of an altruistic organ donation. 

The court heard that the potential donor and interpreter attended a meeting with a surgeon at the hospital on March 11. 

After the meeting, Diwe allegedly messaged Ms Ekweremadu’s father, saying: ‘I have spoken with (the interpreter).She said the boy did better today but he’s still showing so much timidity. 

‘She covered up for him and added the words as much as possible. The surgeon will discuss with Dr Dupont and they will communicate us. They will continue to work on the boy’s confidence.Ebere and Obinna.’

But, the surgeon agreed with the initial assessment made by Dr Dupont that the donor was unsuitable. Ms Ekweremadu was informed of the decision on March 29.   

Mr Davies told the court the interpreter was also involved in Dr Obeta’s own transplant. 

The jury heard that Dr Obeta, also on trial with the family, had secured a kidney transplant at the Royal Free Hospital in 2021, with a donor purporting to be his cousin. 

Mr Davies told jurors an affidavit was the only evidence of a relation between the two men. 

‘Whatever the truth of any of that, the basis of his transplant process provided a clear model for what Sonia needed in her moment of crisis,’ he told the court. 

Jurors heard that Dr Obeta had trained at medical school with Diwe, who remains in Nigeria and is not on trial.

An heiress used to a comfortable lifestyle in Chelsera got a taste of the real world by staying with a family-of-five on the breadline for the TV show Rich Kids Go Skint. 

Veronika, evdeN evE nAkLiyaT 20, admitted on the show, eVDEN eVE nakLiYaT which aired last night on 5Star, that she’s never had to worry about earning money, enjoying an allowance from her family, who also pay her bills and for her rented flat in Chelsea. 

She goes to stay with Brandon and Rachel Slater, who live in a rented three-bedroom house with their three children, Brooke, Declan and Olivia in Leeds, who work multiple jobs to make ends meet. 

Thanks to her time with the family, who have only a couple of hundreds pounds left to enjoy after bills per month, Veronika gained a newfound appreciation of her privileged life, while the family were surprised by how ‘lovely’ she was. 

The 20-year-old was born in St Petersburg, but was raised in France and moved to the UK when she was eight. 

She was educated at Marlborough College, where the Princess of Wales also studied, and where tuition can reach £40,000 a year. 

The heiress lives alone, EvdeN eve naKLiyAT in a one bedroom flat in the affluent neighbourhood of Chelsea, with her dog, and likes to indulge in shopping trips to Selfridges  

‘I do love to take myself on a Selfridges trip when I can,’ she said. 

She is also the proud owner of a designer bag collection, however, most of them were not bought by her, and were inherited from her mother, now holding a sentimental value. 

‘A girl can never have too many bags,’ the heiress joked, adding that getting her hair extension, her hair cut and her nails done costs her up to £600 a month. 

Veronika said she hoped going to stay with the Slaters would teach her how to be more reasonable with her spending.  

‘I feel like this experience will teach me that it’s a lot easier to save up than I think, and I should be saving a lot more money than I do,’ she said. 

She travelled to Leeds to stay with the Slaters, whose financial reality was very different from hers. 

Brandon has an ‘on an off’ bouncy castle for hire business he’s kept going for 14 years.

To make ends meet, he’s turned to making toys for soft play in his free time, and sometimes picks up shifts as a carrier if the family needs extra cash, which has become a common occurrence for them in the face of the cost of living crisis. 

Brandon admitted on the show that he doesn’t know what he is going to make month-to-month, and whether he’ll have enough of one job to feed the family, or if he’ll need to take on three jobs at the same time to make ends meet. 

Meanwhile, Rachel works in a nursery and owns a floristry business on the side. 

While the family struggled financially, only being left with about £200 at most of disposable income for the month, Brandon and Rachel said they wouldn’t have it any other way. 

‘Money don’t matter, it can’t buy you hell,’ the father-of-three said. 

‘We’ve got everything.That’s worth more to me than what their dad’s given to them with their credit card,’ he added. 

The family spend £830 on rent, and £220 on a storage unit, plus on food for five and the essentials. 

They also have five pets: two dogs, two tortoises and a bearded dragon, which made Veronika feel like she was in a ‘petting zoo,’ she said when she visited. 

Asked what he expected the rich kid to think of his family, he said: ‘I think they will be shocked at how much work goes into what we do every day of life for a little money. 

‘I don’t know whether they have a job or just spend their mum and dads inheritance or money.

‘They’re certainly not going to do what I do for 50 quid, and they’re not going to do what I do for a 100 quid,’ he said, adding: ‘they probably spend that on a pizza.’

Veronika didn’t pack too many brands in the overnight bag she took to the Slaters, but still took her Chanel bag and a £300 woollen hoodie, Gucci trainers, and a £150 pair of jeans. 

‘I’m just kind of getting ready to be independent from my family and making my own money, so seeing families that operate on a much tighter budget would be a good experience to prepare me for the real world,’ she said. 

Right after meeting, conversation between Veronika and the Slater turned awkward after the heiress admitted: ‘I’ve never had a paid job.But I’ve done work experience at places.’

She went on to say that the two things she has to spend money on per month is herself and her dog. 

One of the luxuries in the Slater household is a pool table they paid £800, and for which the couple saved for eight months in order to afford.  

The Slater family have not always struggled with money, but lost their savings after running into some life set backs. 

‘We’re not left with a fortune, couple of hundred pound a month leftover, before Declan decides he needs some new trainers for school, Brook needs new tights, it is a struggle at the moment,’ Brandon said. 

Brandon and Rachel also told Veronika they haven’t had a glass of wine since their wedding day because they can’t afford it.  

After a game of football at the park with Brandon and Declan, the heiress followed Rachel to the local shop, where she was tasked with getting a meal for six for just £10. 

Veronika spent £9.49 on a couple of chicken breasts, one pepper, one onion, tortillas and some seasoning, and set out to make fajitas, relying on the family’s cupboard to make the meal. 

While it was too spicy for most of them to enjoy, Brendon and Rachel were thankful for the efforts she put in. 

‘I think I could have done better but considering the limited options at the shop, this is probably the best they could do,’ she said. If you enjoyed this information and you would like to receive even more facts concerning EVDen eVE NAKliyAT kindly visit our site.  

‘Definitely would have bought the proper fajita kit,’ and added it would have been even better ‘if we have the budget to get guacamole, sour cream.’

The next day, Veronika surprised Brandon with her positive attitude as he took her and Brook and friend Mila to help with the bouncy castle business.  

The experience was an eye-opener for the heiress, who said she couldn’t believe that after all the work they put in, Brandon, the girls and herself only made a £65 profit out of setting up the bouncy castle for an event. 

‘It really makes me appreciate my life and eVdeN Eve NAKLiyaT how privileged I am with what I’ve got,’ she said. 

‘I don’t have necessarily a passion for bouncy castles, so I will probably try to pursue my own career in something else,’ she said. 

She went on to help Rachel with her floral arrangements for her floristry business, before packing up to go back to London. 

‘I’ve had the best time ever, thank you so much for having me, it’s been a great experience,’ she told Brandon and Rachel, adding she was ‘100 per cent’ glad she came to live with them. 

‘It wasn’t what I was expecting it to be,’ she said. 

‘It’s been a very interesting experience, and I think the main thing that I got out of it is you can’t always judge a book by its cover,’ the heiress said. 

‘Despite the fact the family have a lovely home, obviously, they do struggle financially to maintain that

‘I have also realised a lot of labour goes into things behind the scenes, such as having to load up the truck every morning and not just showing up and setting everything up,’ she said, about Brandon’s bouncy castle business. 

The father-of-three also admitted to have been surprised by his ‘lovely’ guest.  

‘She was different from what we expected,’ admitted they expected Veronika to be ‘a brat and a bit spoiled,’ but adding she was none of those things. 

He added they could definitely see themselves being friends with Veronika.  

To thank the family for allowing her to stay with them, Veronika also treated them to a go-carting experience.  

A group of criminals who made so much money from a £21 million scam they handed out £5,000 gift cards on the street have been jailed.

Stephen William Boys, 59, and Kelly Caton, 45, have been found guilty of fraud, converting and transferring criminal property.Jordan Kane Robinson, 25, and James Austin-Beddoes, 28, were also found guilty. 

Preston Crown Court heard how the group worked with ringleader James Parker, who died in 2021 before he could be prosecuted for masterminding the conspiracy.

Parker ran the operation from his home in Blackpool, Lancashire from October 2017 to January 2018, helping the group to make ‘more money than they could spend.’

He exploited a loophole to withdraw dishonestly-obtained crypto assets worth around £15 million from his trading account on an Australian-based cryptocurrency exchange.

Caton dishonestly withdrew £2.7 million and Robinson withdrew £1.7 million from their accounts.

The scam made so much money that £5,000 gift cards were handed out to people in the street and cars were bought for people Parker met in the pub, Preston Crown Court heard.

During the trial Boys told the court how he took £1 million cash in a suitcase to buy a villa from Russians he met in the back office of an estate agent and paid £60,000 to pay off corrupt officials so he could carry on laundering money.

During the investigation police recovered 445 Bitcoin, then worth £22 million, along with luxury watches, houses, cars and designer goods, including a £600 wine cooler, plus more than £1 million in bank accounts.

Parker’s financial adviser Stephen Boys worked with a UK national who lived in the United Arab Emirates to convert the cryptocurrency into cash.

The money was then laundered through various foreign-based online accounts.

Stephen Boys, of Accrington, Lancashire was found guilty of converting and transferring criminal property and jailed for evDEn EVE nAKliyat six years.

Kelly Caton, of Blackpool, EvdeN eVe naKliYat Lancashire was convicted of fraud, converting and acquiring criminal property and jailed for four-and-a-half years.

Jordan Robinson, EvDen eVe nakLiyaT of Fleetwood, Lancashire was found guilty of fraud, converting and acquiring criminal property and was also jailed for four-and-a-half years.

James Austin-Beddoes, of St Annes, Lancashire was found guilty of fraud and acquiring criminal property.

He pleaded guilty to converting criminal property and was jailed for 18 months, suspended for a year.

Jonathan Kelleher of the CPS said: ‘These offenders used the internet from the comfort of their own homes to obtain tens of millions of pounds worth of Bitcoin which did not belong to them.

‘Cyber-enabled crime presents an increasing threat to international economic stability, as well as to honest individual investors in cryptocurrency.

‘The CPS advised our police partners throughout this international investigation.

‘Painstaking analysis of vast amounts of digital material and collaborative liaison with the Australian and Finnish authorities enabled us to mount a successful prosecution against these criminals.’

DS David Wainwright of Lancashire Police said: ‘This was a large and complex case in which these offenders have now been brought to justice.

‘I would like to thank everyone who worked as a team, together with our partner agencies, to achieve this successful outcome. If you’re ready to learn more info on EVDeN eve NaKliYAT check out our own website. ‘

Det Sgt David Wainwright, of Lancashire Police’s Fraud Unit, said: ‘The scale of the fraud in this case is absolutely staggering and led to the suspects literally having more money than they could spend.

‘I would like to pay tribute to all the agencies who worked closely together to bring these people to justice.’